Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1–4 Hibernian

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Hibernian

7/17/2022

League Cup · Group Stage - 5New Dundas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic12%

×Draw18%

Hibernian70%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticExpected goals in this matchHibernian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.75

2.18

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

0.75

Hibernian

2.18

Hibernian creates 191% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

0.43

creates per match

1.79

2.57

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

0.43

Hibernian

1.79

allows per match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

2.57

Hibernian

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par

Hibernian+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic ↓

Hibernian →

0–05%

0–112%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic or draw

30%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic or Hibernian

82%

Draw or Hibernian

88%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+

Hibernian wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals

53%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals

17%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals

Hibernian 1+ goals

89%

Hibernian 2+ goals

64%

Hibernian 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)

14%

Hibernian (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at home — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 0.43 + Hibernian defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.75

Hibernian attack 1.79 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more

12%

level

18%

Hibernian scores more

70%

Hibernian at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff