Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2–0 Elgin City

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Elgin City

11/9/2024

League Two · Round 12New Dundas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic44%

×Draw26%

Elgin City30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticExpected goals in this matchElgin City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.20

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.50

Elgin City

1.20

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic creates 25% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 134 away

1.36

creates per match

1.10

1.29

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.36

Elgin City

1.10

allows per match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

1.29

Elgin City

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par

Elgin City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic ↓

Elgin City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic or draw

70%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic or Elgin City

74%

Draw or Elgin City

56%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+

22%

Elgin City wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals

78%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals

44%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals

19%

Elgin City 1+ goals

70%

Elgin City 2+ goals

34%

Elgin City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)

59%

Elgin City (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.29 · 56 matches

Elgin City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.63 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 1.36 + Elgin City defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Elgin City attack 1.10 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more

44%

level

26%

Elgin City scores more

30%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff