Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Bo'ness United — FA Cup 2019

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
FT
5 – 2
Bo'ness United
Bo'ness United
G. Hunter 75', 47'
L. Currie 62' (pen), 59' (pen), 57' (pen)
R. Stevenson 87'
Z. Miller 35'
1/1/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundAinslie Park Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic50%
×Draw22%
Bo'ness United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
1.90
Bo'ness United
1.37

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic creates 39% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
2.00
Bo'ness United
1.60

allows per match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
1.14
Bo'ness United
1.80

finishing

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par
Bo'ness United+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic ↓

Bo'ness United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic or draw
72%
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic or Bo'ness United
78%
Draw or Bo'ness United
50%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+
28%
Bo'ness United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals
85%
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals
56%
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals
29%
Bo'ness United 1+ goals
75%
Bo'ness United 2+ goals
40%
Bo'ness United 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)
64%
Bo'ness United (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Bo'ness United away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 2.00 + Bo'ness United defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Bo'ness United attack 1.60 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more
50%
level
22%
Bo'ness United scores more
28%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
Z. Miller
47'
G. Hunter
57'
L. CurriePenalty
59'
L. CurriePenalty
62'
L. CurriePenalty
75'
G. Hunter
87'
R. Stevenson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 5–2 Bo'ness United

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic beat Bo'ness United 5-2 in FA Cup on January 1, 2021.

Goals: Z. Miller (35'), G. Hunter (47', 75'), L. Currie (57' pen, 59' pen, 62' pen), R. Stevenson (87').

The match was played at Ainslie Park Stadium in Edinburgh.