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Bonner SC vs Verl — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Bonner SC
Bonner SC
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 1
Verl
Verl
A. Besio 78', 59'
J. Stark 74'
M. Ens 67'
F. Otto 42'
1/8/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bonner SC21%
×Draw18%
Verl61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonner SC
1.54
Verl
2.67

Verl creates 73% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Bonner SC
1.00
Verl
2.00

allows per match

Bonner SC
3.33
Verl
2.08

finishing

Bonner SC+0.00on par
Verl+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC ↓

Verl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Bonner SC or draw
39%
Bonner SC or Verl
82%
Draw or Verl
79%

Winning margin

Bonner SC wins by 2+
9%
Verl wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

Bonner SC 1+ goals
79%
Bonner SC 2+ goals
45%
Bonner SC 3+ goals
20%
Verl 1+ goals
93%
Verl 2+ goals
74%
Verl 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC (draw refunded)
26%
Verl (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

Verl away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC attack 1.00 + Verl defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Verl attack 2.00 + Bonner SC defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bonner SC scores more
21%
level
18%
Verl scores more
61%

Verl at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Verl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
F. Otto
59'
A. Besio
67'
M. Ens
74'
J. Stark
78'
A. Besio
Bonner
Verl
D. Zillken
Manager: D. Zillken
Tobias Strobl
Manager: Tobias Strobl

Bonner SC 0 – 5 Verl

Verl beat Bonner SC 5-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 8, 2026.

Goals: F. Otto (42'), A. Besio (59', 78'), M. Ens (67'), J. Stark (74').