Bonner SC 3–0 Hürth: Result & Stats

Bonner SC

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Hürth

5/18/2025

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 26Sportpark Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bonner SC63%

×Draw20%

Hürth17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SCExpected goals in this matchHürth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.06

Bonner SC

2.21

Hürth

1.06

Bonner SC creates 108% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 66 away

2.40

creates per match

1.41

0.71

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Bonner SC

2.40

Hürth

1.41

allows per match

Bonner SC

0.71

Hürth

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC+0.00on par

Hürth+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC ↓

Hürth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Bonner SC or draw

83%

Bonner SC or Hürth

80%

Draw or Hürth

37%

Winning margin

Bonner SC wins by 2+

40%

Hürth wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Bonner SC 1+ goals

89%

Bonner SC 2+ goals

65%

Bonner SC 3+ goals

38%

Hürth 1+ goals

65%

Hürth 2+ goals

29%

Hürth 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC (draw refunded)

79%

Hürth (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Hürth away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC attack 2.40 + Hürth defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.21

Hürth attack 1.41 + Bonner SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bonner SC scores more

63%

level

20%

Hürth scores more

17%

Bonner SC at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff