Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bonner SC vs Hennef 05 — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bonner SC
Bonner SC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hennef 05
Hennef 05
4/4/2025Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 20Sportpark Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bonner SC55%
×Draw21%
Hennef 0524%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonner SC
2.13
Hennef 05
1.34

Bonner SC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 81 away

creates per match

Bonner SC
2.40
Hennef 05
1.98

allows per match

Bonner SC
0.71
Hennef 05
1.86

finishing

Bonner SC+0.00on par
Hennef 05+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC ↓

Hennef 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bonner SC or draw
76%
Bonner SC or Hennef 05
79%
Draw or Hennef 05
45%

Winning margin

Bonner SC wins by 2+
33%
Hennef 05 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bonner SC 1+ goals
88%
Bonner SC 2+ goals
63%
Bonner SC 3+ goals
35%
Hennef 05 1+ goals
74%
Hennef 05 2+ goals
39%
Hennef 05 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC (draw refunded)
70%
Hennef 05 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Hennef 05 away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.86 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC attack 2.40 + Hennef 05 defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.13

Hennef 05 attack 1.98 + Bonner SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bonner SC scores more
55%
level
21%
Hennef 05 scores more
24%

Bonner SC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Bonner SC 2–2 Hennef 05

Bonner SC and Hennef 05 drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on April 4, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark Nord in Bonn.