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Bonner SC vs Germania Teveren — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bonner SC
Bonner SC
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Germania Teveren
Germania Teveren
2/25/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 19Sportpark Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bonner SC73%
×Draw14%
Germania Teveren12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonner SC
3.04
Germania Teveren
1.19

Bonner SC creates 155% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bonner SC
2.40
Germania Teveren
1.67

allows per match

Bonner SC
0.71
Germania Teveren
3.67

finishing

Bonner SC+0.00on par
Germania Teveren+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC ↓

Germania Teveren →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Bonner SC or draw
88%
Bonner SC or Germania Teveren
86%
Draw or Germania Teveren
27%

Winning margin

Bonner SC wins by 2+
54%
Germania Teveren wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bonner SC 1+ goals
95%
Bonner SC 2+ goals
80%
Bonner SC 3+ goals
57%
Germania Teveren 1+ goals
70%
Germania Teveren 2+ goals
33%
Germania Teveren 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC (draw refunded)
86%
Germania Teveren (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Germania Teveren away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC attack 2.40 + Germania Teveren defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.04

Germania Teveren attack 1.67 + Bonner SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Bonner SC scores more
73%
level
14%
Germania Teveren scores more
12%

Bonner SC at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bonner SC vs Germania Teveren

Bonner SC beat Germania Teveren 5-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark Nord in Bonn.