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Bonner SC vs Friesdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bonner SC
Bonner SC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Friesdorf
Friesdorf
5/12/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 25Sportpark Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bonner SC68%
×Draw18%
Friesdorf14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonner SC
2.45
Friesdorf
1.04

Bonner SC creates 136% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bonner SC
2.40
Friesdorf
1.36

allows per match

Bonner SC
0.71
Friesdorf
2.50

finishing

Bonner SC+0.00on par
Friesdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC ↓

Friesdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bonner SC or draw
86%
Bonner SC or Friesdorf
82%
Draw or Friesdorf
32%

Winning margin

Bonner SC wins by 2+
46%
Friesdorf wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bonner SC 1+ goals
91%
Bonner SC 2+ goals
70%
Bonner SC 3+ goals
44%
Friesdorf 1+ goals
65%
Friesdorf 2+ goals
28%
Friesdorf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC (draw refunded)
82%
Friesdorf (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Friesdorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC attack 2.40 + Friesdorf defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.45

Friesdorf attack 1.36 + Bonner SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bonner SC scores more
68%
level
18%
Friesdorf scores more
14%

Bonner SC at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Bonner SC 2–0 Friesdorf

Bonner SC beat Friesdorf 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 12, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Nord in Bonn.