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Bonner SC vs Fortuna Köln II — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bonner SC
Bonner SC
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Fortuna Köln II
Fortuna Köln II
9/24/2023Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 7Sportpark Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bonner SC60%
×Draw20%
Fortuna Köln II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonner SC
2.15
Fortuna Köln II
1.13

Bonner SC creates 90% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 79 away

creates per match

Bonner SC
2.40
Fortuna Köln II
1.54

allows per match

Bonner SC
0.71
Fortuna Köln II
1.89

finishing

Bonner SC+0.00on par
Fortuna Köln II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC ↓

Fortuna Köln II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bonner SC or draw
81%
Bonner SC or Fortuna Köln II
80%
Draw or Fortuna Köln II
40%

Winning margin

Bonner SC wins by 2+
37%
Fortuna Köln II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bonner SC 1+ goals
88%
Bonner SC 2+ goals
63%
Bonner SC 3+ goals
36%
Fortuna Köln II 1+ goals
68%
Fortuna Köln II 2+ goals
31%
Fortuna Köln II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC (draw refunded)
76%
Fortuna Köln II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Fortuna Köln II away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC attack 2.40 + Fortuna Köln II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.15

Fortuna Köln II attack 1.54 + Bonner SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bonner SC scores more
60%
level
20%
Fortuna Köln II scores more
19%

Bonner SC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Mittelrhein: Bonner SC 2–4 Fortuna Köln II

Fortuna Köln II beat Bonner SC 4-2 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Nord in Bonn.