Bonner SC 2–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf II: Result & Stats

Bonner SC

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

1/7/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Kunstrasenplatz Sportpark Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Bonner SC17%

×Draw17%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SCExpected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

2.75

Bonner SC

1.33

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

2.75

Fortuna Düsseldorf II creates 107% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.00

creates per match

2.17

3.33

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bonner SC

1.00

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

2.17

allows per match

Bonner SC

3.33

Fortuna Düsseldorf II

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Bonner SC or draw

33%

Bonner SC or Fortuna Düsseldorf II

83%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf II

83%

Winning margin

Bonner SC wins by 2+

7%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Bonner SC 1+ goals

74%

Bonner SC 2+ goals

38%

Bonner SC 3+ goals

15%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II 1+ goals

93%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II 2+ goals

75%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II 3+ goals

51%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC (draw refunded)

20%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.33 · 6 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf II away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC attack 1.00 + Fortuna Düsseldorf II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Fortuna Düsseldorf II attack 2.17 + Bonner SC defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Bonner SC scores more

17%

level

17%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II scores more

67%

Fortuna Düsseldorf II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff