Bonner SC 5–0 Eintracht Hohkeppel: Result & Stats

Bonner SC

FT

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Eintracht Hohkeppel

12/4/2022

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 15Sportpark Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Bonner SC51%

×Draw22%

Eintracht Hohkeppel26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SCExpected goals in this matchEintracht Hohkeppel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.31

Bonner SC

1.90

Eintracht Hohkeppel

1.31

Bonner SC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 43 away

2.40

creates per match

1.91

0.71

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Bonner SC

2.40

Eintracht Hohkeppel

1.91

allows per match

Bonner SC

0.71

Eintracht Hohkeppel

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC+0.00on par

Eintracht Hohkeppel+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC ↓

Eintracht Hohkeppel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bonner SC or draw

74%

Bonner SC or Eintracht Hohkeppel

78%

Draw or Eintracht Hohkeppel

49%

Winning margin

Bonner SC wins by 2+

29%

Eintracht Hohkeppel wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bonner SC 1+ goals

85%

Bonner SC 2+ goals

56%

Bonner SC 3+ goals

29%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 1+ goals

73%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 2+ goals

38%

Eintracht Hohkeppel 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC (draw refunded)

66%

Eintracht Hohkeppel (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.71 · 45 matches

Eintracht Hohkeppel away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC attack 2.40 + Eintracht Hohkeppel defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.90

Eintracht Hohkeppel attack 1.91 + Bonner SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bonner SC scores more

51%

level

22%

Eintracht Hohkeppel scores more

26%

Bonner SC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff