Bonner SC U19 1–3 Viktoria Köln U19: Result & Stats

Bonner SC U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Viktoria Köln U19

O. Lichter 45+1' (pen)

J. Walther 90'

K. Örgün 42'

J. Sticker 27'

10/9/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 6Stadion Pennenfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bonner SC U1932%

×Draw22%

Viktoria Köln U1946%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SC U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.96

Bonner SC U19

1.59

Viktoria Köln U19

1.96

Viktoria Köln U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 70 away

1.18

creates per match

1.46

2.45

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Bonner SC U19

1.18

Viktoria Köln U19

1.46

allows per match

Bonner SC U19

2.45

Viktoria Köln U19

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bonner SC U19 or draw

54%

Bonner SC U19 or Viktoria Köln U19

78%

Draw or Viktoria Köln U19

68%

Winning margin

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

15%

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

80%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

47%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

21%

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

86%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

58%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

41%

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC U19 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.00 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC U19 attack 1.18 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.59

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.46 + Bonner SC U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bonner SC U19 scores more

32%

level

22%

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

46%

Viktoria Köln U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Viktoria Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

J. Sticker

42'

K. Örgün

45+1'

O. LichterPenalty

58'

E. Cindrak← L. Qorrolli

58'

S. Krämer← R. Doulashi

66'

S. Giambra← F. Fili

70'

M. Bluhm← O. Lichter

70'

M. Ojesanmi← N. Tomson

76'

J. Udelhoven← E. Işık

76'

O. Ichue← K. Örgün

82'

M. Gültekin← C. Abresch

82'

90'

90+1'

90+1'

90'

Bonner

Viktoria

Schüchter

Amaniampo

⚽

Sticker

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Ndjeng

58'▲E. Cindrak←▼L. Qorrolli

58'▲S. Krämer←▼R. Doulashi

70'▲M. Bluhm←▼O. Lichter

70'▲M. Ojesanmi←▼N. Tomson

82'▲M. Gültekin←▼C. Abresch

Bonner SC U19 substitutes

CindrakKrämerBluhmOjesanmiGültekinKalayciOsawe

Manager: M. Wilhelm

66'▲S. Giambra←▼F. Fili

76'▲J. Udelhoven←▼E. Işık

76'▲O. Ichue←▼K. Örgün

82'▲L. Kubek←▼K. Taskale

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

GiambraUdelhovenIchueKubekDennerleinGediktasMasry