Bonner SC U19 2–3 Viktoria Berlin U19

Bonner SC U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Viktoria Berlin U19

B. Derin 66' (OG)

K. Mohylevets 27'

O. Backfisch 10'

K. Günay 7'

M. Oglou 2'

5/7/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 1Sportpark Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bonner SC U1936%

×Draw21%

Viktoria Berlin U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SC U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Berlin U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.02

Bonner SC U19

1.83

Viktoria Berlin U19

2.02

Viktoria Berlin U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 41 away

1.18

creates per match

1.59

2.45

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Bonner SC U19

1.18

Viktoria Berlin U19

1.59

allows per match

Bonner SC U19

2.45

Viktoria Berlin U19

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Berlin U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC U19 ↓

Viktoria Berlin U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Bonner SC U19 or draw

57%

Bonner SC U19 or Viktoria Berlin U19

79%

Draw or Viktoria Berlin U19

64%

Winning margin

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

18%

Viktoria Berlin U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

84%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

54%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

28%

Viktoria Berlin U19 1+ goals

87%

Viktoria Berlin U19 2+ goals

60%

Viktoria Berlin U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Viktoria Berlin U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC U19 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Viktoria Berlin U19 away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.49 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC U19 attack 1.18 + Viktoria Berlin U19 defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.83

Viktoria Berlin U19 attack 1.59 + Bonner SC U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bonner SC U19 scores more

36%

level

21%

Viktoria Berlin U19 scores more

43%

Viktoria Berlin U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Viktoria Berlin U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

7'

10'

27'

42'

53'

B. Boboy← L. Qorrolli

53'

M. Gültekin← C. Abresch

63'

E. Ünal← J. Osawe

63'

B. Sedef← M. Oglou

63'

D. Keskin← O. Backfisch

63'

L. Sommerfeld← P. Helmich

66'

B. DerinOwn goal

Bonner

Viktoria

Tellez

Karakus

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Ndjeng

53'▲B. Boboy←▼L. Qorrolli

53'▲M. Gültekin←▼C. Abresch

63'▲E. Ünal←▼J. Osawe

Bonner SC U19 substitutes

BoboyGültekinÜnalHövelBuhl

Manager: H. Keskin

42'▲B. Derin←▼C. Voigt

63'▲B. Sedef←▼M. Oglou

63'▲D. Keskin←▼O. Backfisch

63'▲L. Sommerfeld←▼P. Helmich

Viktoria Berlin U19 substitutes

DerinSedefKeskinSommerfeldOrlov

Match Recap: Bonner SC U19 vs Viktoria Berlin U19

Viktoria Berlin U19 beat Bonner SC U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on May 7, 2023.

Goals: M. Oglou (2'), K. Günay (7'), O. Backfisch (10'), K. Mohylevets (27'), B. Derin (66' o.g.).

The match was played at Sportpark Nord in Bonn.

Bonner SC U19 vs Viktoria Berlin U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bonner SC U19 vs Viktoria Berlin U19