Bonner SC U19 4–3 Verl U19: Result & Stats

Bonner SC U19

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Verl U19

2/18/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 12Sportpark Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bonner SC U1943%

×Draw22%

Verl U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SC U19Expected goals in this matchVerl U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.77

Bonner SC U19

1.94

Verl U19

1.77

Bonner SC U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 23 away

1.18

creates per match

1.09

2.45

allows per match

2.70

creates per match

Bonner SC U19

1.18

Verl U19

1.09

allows per match

Bonner SC U19

2.45

Verl U19

2.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

Verl U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC U19 ↓

Verl U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Bonner SC U19 or draw

64%

Bonner SC U19 or Verl U19

78%

Draw or Verl U19

57%

Winning margin

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

23%

Verl U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

86%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

58%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

30%

Verl U19 1+ goals

83%

Verl U19 2+ goals

53%

Verl U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Verl U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC U19 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Verl U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC U19 attack 1.18 + Verl U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 1.94

Verl U19 attack 1.09 + Bonner SC U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bonner SC U19 scores more

43%

level

22%

Verl U19 scores more

36%

Bonner SC U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bonner SC U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff