Bonner SC U19 0–1 Schalke 04 U19: Result & Stats

Bonner SC U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Schalke 04 U19

Y. Tonye 48'

10/12/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 3Stadion Pennenfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bonner SC U1920%

×Draw20%

Schalke 04 U1960%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SC U19Expected goals in this matchSchalke 04 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.23

Bonner SC U19

1.21

Schalke 04 U19

2.23

Schalke 04 U19 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 68 away

1.18

creates per match

2.00

2.45

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Bonner SC U19

1.18

Schalke 04 U19

2.00

allows per match

Bonner SC U19

2.45

Schalke 04 U19

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC U19 ↓

Schalke 04 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Bonner SC U19 or draw

40%

Bonner SC U19 or Schalke 04 U19

80%

Draw or Schalke 04 U19

80%

Winning margin

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

8%

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

70%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

34%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

12%

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals

89%

Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals

65%

Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC U19 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Schalke 04 U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC U19 attack 1.18 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.00 + Bonner SC U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bonner SC U19 scores more

20%

level

20%

Schalke 04 U19 scores more

60%

Schalke 04 U19 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

N. Hadzha← M. Grüger

46'

Y. Tonye← K. Aninkorah-Meisel

48'

Y. Tonye

62'

M. Gültekin← B. Boboy

62'

N. Tomson← M. Ojesanmi

62'

S. Kojic← K. Topp

80'

D. Milic← T. Osmani

82'

E. Lanfer← F. Ouédraogo

90+2'

D. Sinanoglu← I. Islamovic

Bonner

Schalke

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Ndjeng

62'▲M. Gültekin←▼B. Boboy

62'▲N. Tomson←▼M. Ojesanmi

90+2'▲D. Sinanoglu←▼I. Islamovic

Bonner SC U19 substitutes

GültekinTomsonSinanogluKalayciÜnalReuschenbachBluhm

Manager: N. Elgert

46'▲N. Hadzha←▼M. Grüger

46'▲Y. Tonye←▼K. Aninkorah-Meisel

62'▲S. Kojic←▼K. Topp

80'▲D. Milic←▼T. Osmani

82'▲E. Lanfer←▼F. Ouédraogo

Schalke 04 U19 substitutes

HadzhaTonyeKojicMilicLanferPodlechBuczkowski