Bonner SC U19 2–1 RW Oberhausen U19: Result & Stats

Bonner SC U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

RW Oberhausen U19

O. Lichter 57'

M. Ojesanmi 42'

D. Burghard 62'

8/14/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 1Stadion Pennenfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bonner SC U1936%

×Draw22%

RW Oberhausen U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SC U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.81

Bonner SC U19

1.66

RW Oberhausen U19

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 51 away

1.18

creates per match

1.18

2.45

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Bonner SC U19

1.18

RW Oberhausen U19

1.18

allows per match

Bonner SC U19

2.45

RW Oberhausen U19

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bonner SC U19 or draw

58%

Bonner SC U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

78%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

64%

Winning margin

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

18%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

81%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

49%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

23%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

84%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

54%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

46%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC U19 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC U19 attack 1.18 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.66

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.18 + Bonner SC U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bonner SC U19 scores more

36%

level

22%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

42%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

M. Ojesanmi

46'

A. Sancarbarlaz← E. Hadzibajramovic

46'

D. Burghard← O. Hot

46'

L. Twumasi← Daniel Raul

57'

O. Lichter

62'

D. Burghard

65'

M. Matthes← E. Özat

68'

M. Gültekin← E. Cindrak

68'

E. Ünal← J. Osawe

68'

T. Simakis← F. Geißler

74'

M. Bluhm← M. Ojesanmi

87'

D. Sinanoglu← O. Lichter

Bonner

RW

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Ojesanmi

Boboy

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: M. Ndjeng

68'▲M. Gültekin←▼E. Cindrak

68'▲E. Ünal←▼J. Osawe

74'▲M. Bluhm←▼M. Ojesanmi

87'▲D. Sinanoglu←▼O. Lichter

Bonner SC U19 substitutes

GültekinÜnalBluhmSinanogluReuschenbachKrämerBuhl

Manager: M. Kaya

46'▲A. Sancarbarlaz←▼E. Hadzibajramovic

46'▲D. Burghard←▼O. Hot

46'▲L. Twumasi←▼Daniel Raul

65'▲M. Matthes←▼E. Özat

68'▲T. Simakis←▼F. Geißler

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

SancarbarlazBurghardTwumasiMatthesSimakisPlathBöhm

U19 Bundesliga: Bonner SC U19 2–1 RW Oberhausen U19

Bonner SC U19 beat RW Oberhausen U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 14, 2022.

Goals: M. Ojesanmi (42'), O. Lichter (57'), D. Burghard (62').

The match was played at Stadion Pennenfeld in Bonn.

Bonner SC U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Bonner SC U19 2–1 RW Oberhausen U19