Bonner SC U19 0–2 MSV Duisburg U19: Result & Stats

Bonner SC U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

MSV Duisburg U19

L. Heck 58'

D. Wieczorek 36'

11/6/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 8Stadion Pennenfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bonner SC U1931%

×Draw22%

MSV Duisburg U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SC U19Expected goals in this matchMSV Duisburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.93

Bonner SC U19

1.53

MSV Duisburg U19

1.93

MSV Duisburg U19 creates 26% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 68 away

1.18

creates per match

1.40

2.45

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Bonner SC U19

1.18

MSV Duisburg U19

1.40

allows per match

Bonner SC U19

2.45

MSV Duisburg U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

MSV Duisburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC U19 ↓

MSV Duisburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Bonner SC U19 or draw

53%

Bonner SC U19 or MSV Duisburg U19

78%

Draw or MSV Duisburg U19

69%

Winning margin

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

14%

MSV Duisburg U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

78%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

45%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

20%

MSV Duisburg U19 1+ goals

85%

MSV Duisburg U19 2+ goals

57%

MSV Duisburg U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

40%

MSV Duisburg U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC U19 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

MSV Duisburg U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.88 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC U19 attack 1.18 + MSV Duisburg U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.53

MSV Duisburg U19 attack 1.40 + Bonner SC U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bonner SC U19 scores more

31%

level

22%

MSV Duisburg U19 scores more

47%

MSV Duisburg U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "MSV Duisburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

B. Boboy← E. Cindrak

36'

D. Wieczorek

46'

N. Tomson← M. Ojesanmi

58'

L. Heck

72'

K. Mohylevets← T. Wieschebrock

76'

D. Zogu← N. Kashama

86'

B. Kurt← D. Wieczorek

86'

L. Linnig← L. Blažević

89'

D. Sinanoglu← O. Lichter

Bonner

MSV

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Ndjeng

19'▲B. Boboy←▼E. Cindrak

46'▲N. Tomson←▼M. Ojesanmi

72'▲K. Mohylevets←▼T. Wieschebrock

89'▲D. Sinanoglu←▼O. Lichter

Bonner SC U19 substitutes

BoboyTomsonMohylevetsSinanogluKalayciQorrolliReuschenbach

Manager: E. Vural

76'▲D. Zogu←▼N. Kashama

86'▲B. Kurt←▼D. Wieczorek

86'▲L. Linnig←▼L. Blažević

MSV Duisburg U19 substitutes

ZoguKurtLinnigBaghSchübel

Match Recap: Bonner SC U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19

MSV Duisburg U19 beat Bonner SC U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 6, 2022.

Goals: D. Wieczorek (36'), L. Heck (58').

The match was played at Stadion Pennenfeld in Bonn.

Bonner SC U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bonner SC U19 vs MSV Duisburg U19