Bonner SC U19 0–5 Holstein Kiel U19: Result & Stats

Bonner SC U19

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Holstein Kiel U19

P. Meyer 81'

L. Tunjic 75'

P. Erfmann 29'

M. Zimmer 24'

E. Calikoglu 17'

5/14/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 2Stadion Pennenfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bonner SC U1938%

×Draw21%

Holstein Kiel U1941%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SC U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

2.02

Bonner SC U19

1.96

Holstein Kiel U19

2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 62 away

1.18

creates per match

1.58

2.45

allows per match

2.73

creates per match

Bonner SC U19

1.18

Holstein Kiel U19

1.58

allows per match

Bonner SC U19

2.45

Holstein Kiel U19

2.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Bonner SC U19 or draw

59%

Bonner SC U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

79%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

62%

Winning margin

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

21%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

86%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

58%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

31%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

87%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

60%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC U19 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 2.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC U19 attack 1.18 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 1.96

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.58 + Bonner SC U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bonner SC U19 scores more

38%

level

21%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

41%

Holstein Kiel U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Holstein Kiel U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

E. Calikoglu

24'

M. Zimmer

29'

P. Erfmann

44'

E. Cindrak← M. Gültekin

44'

E. Ünal← C. Abresch

61'

B. Opoku Labes← E. Calikoglu

61'

L. Glissmann← M. Sinanović

61'

L. Tunjic← M. Zimmer

64'

S. Biniazz← L. Qorrolli

67'

B. Keskin← L. Thele

67'

J. Bente← C. Koç

75'

L. Tunjic

81'

P. Meyer

Bonner

Holstein

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Zimmer

▼

Sinanović

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Ndjeng

44'▲E. Cindrak←▼M. Gültekin

44'▲E. Ünal←▼C. Abresch

64'▲S. Biniazz←▼L. Qorrolli

Bonner SC U19 substitutes

CindrakÜnalBiniazzSchäfer

Manager: F. Raue

61'▲B. Opoku Labes←▼E. Calikoglu

61'▲L. Glissmann←▼M. Sinanović

61'▲L. Tunjic←▼M. Zimmer

67'▲B. Keskin←▼L. Thele

67'▲J. Bente←▼C. Koç

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

LabesGlissmannTunjicKeskinBenteMüller-Kalthoff

U19 Bundesliga: Bonner SC U19 0–5 Holstein Kiel U19

Holstein Kiel U19 beat Bonner SC U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 14, 2023.

Goals: E. Calikoglu (17'), M. Zimmer (24'), P. Erfmann (29'), L. Tunjic (75'), P. Meyer (81').

The match was played at Stadion Pennenfeld in Bonn.

Bonner SC U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Bonner SC U19 0–5 Holstein Kiel U19