Bonner SC U19 2–6 Borussia M'bach U19

Bonner SC U19

FT

2 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Borussia M'bach U19

M. Ojesanmi 88'

N. Tomson 57'

S. Fukuda 85', 12'

L. Werrmann 77'

D. Hülsenbusch 32'

K. Gerhardt 24'

N. Adedeji-Sternberg 2'

3/26/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 1Rasenplatz Waldenburger Ring

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bonner SC U1920%

×Draw19%

Borussia M'bach U1961%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonner SC U19Expected goals in this matchBorussia M'bach U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

2.38

Bonner SC U19

1.31

Borussia M'bach U19

2.38

Borussia M'bach U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 73 away

1.18

creates per match

2.32

2.45

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Bonner SC U19

1.18

Borussia M'bach U19

2.32

allows per match

Bonner SC U19

2.45

Borussia M'bach U19

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par

Borussia M'bach U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC U19 ↓

Borussia M'bach U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Bonner SC U19 or draw

39%

Bonner SC U19 or Borussia M'bach U19

81%

Draw or Borussia M'bach U19

80%

Winning margin

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+

8%

Borussia M'bach U19 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals

73%

Bonner SC U19 2+ goals

38%

Bonner SC U19 3+ goals

14%

Borussia M'bach U19 1+ goals

91%

Borussia M'bach U19 2+ goals

68%

Borussia M'bach U19 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Borussia M'bach U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC U19 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Borussia M'bach U19 away — creates 2.32, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC U19 attack 1.18 + Borussia M'bach U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Borussia M'bach U19 attack 2.32 + Bonner SC U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bonner SC U19 scores more

20%

level

19%

Borussia M'bach U19 scores more

61%

Borussia M'bach U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Borussia M'bach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

12'

24'

32'

46'

46'

L. Werrmann← N. Adedeji-Sternberg

46'

S. Bloch← J. Uwakhonye

46'

Y. Dasbach← M. Moustafa

46'

F. Hoxha← L. Arndt

57'

N. Tomson

64'

I. Islamovic← N. Lee

64'

K. Mohylevets← E. Albert

75'

E. Ünal← M. Gültekin

75'

L. Qorrolli← J. Osawe

77'

L. Werrmann

85'

S. Fukuda

88'

M. Ojesanmi

Bonner

Borussia

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Ndjeng

46'▲N. Tomson←▼B. Boboy

64'▲I. Islamovic←▼N. Lee

64'▲K. Mohylevets←▼E. Albert

75'▲E. Ünal←▼M. Gültekin

75'▲L. Qorrolli←▼J. Osawe

Bonner SC U19 substitutes

TomsonIslamovicMohylevetsÜnalQorrolliKalayciAbresch

Manager: A. Ende

46'▲L. Werrmann←▼N. Adedeji-Sternberg

46'▲S. Bloch←▼J. Uwakhonye

46'▲Y. Dasbach←▼M. Moustafa

46'▲F. Hoxha←▼L. Arndt

Borussia M'bach U19 substitutes

WerrmannBlochDasbachHoxhaBrühl