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Bonner SC U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bonner SC U19
Bonner SC U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
12/10/2022U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 10Sportpark Nord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bonner SC U1920%
×Draw19%
Bayer Leverkusen U1961%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonner SC U19
1.25
Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.33

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 64 away

creates per match

Bonner SC U19
1.18
Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.20

allows per match

Bonner SC U19
2.45
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.31

finishing

Bonner SC U19+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonner SC U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bonner SC U19 or draw
39%
Bonner SC U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19
81%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19
80%

Winning margin

Bonner SC U19 wins by 2+
8%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Bonner SC U19 1+ goals
71%
Bonner SC U19 2+ goals
36%
Bonner SC U19 3+ goals
13%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
90%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
67%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Bonner SC U19 (draw refunded)
24%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonner SC U19 at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.45 · 11 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.31 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonner SC U19 attack 1.18 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.20 + Bonner SC U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Bonner SC U19 scores more
20%
level
19%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
61%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Bonner SC U19 2–1 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Bonner SC U19 beat Bayer Leverkusen U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on December 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Nord in Bonn.