Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bonn-Endenich vs TuS BW Königsdorf — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bonn-Endenich
Bonn-Endenich
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
TuS BW Königsdorf
TuS BW Königsdorf
3/10/2024Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 21Kunstrasenplatz Röckumstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bonn-Endenich36%
×Draw22%
TuS BW Königsdorf42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonn-Endenich
1.66
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.82

TuS BW Königsdorf creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bonn-Endenich
1.40
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.48

allows per match

Bonn-Endenich
2.17
TuS BW Königsdorf
1.92

finishing

Bonn-Endenich+0.00on par
TuS BW Königsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonn-Endenich ↓

TuS BW Königsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bonn-Endenich or draw
58%
Bonn-Endenich or TuS BW Königsdorf
78%
Draw or TuS BW Königsdorf
64%

Winning margin

Bonn-Endenich wins by 2+
18%
TuS BW Königsdorf wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bonn-Endenich 1+ goals
81%
Bonn-Endenich 2+ goals
49%
Bonn-Endenich 3+ goals
23%
TuS BW Königsdorf 1+ goals
84%
TuS BW Königsdorf 2+ goals
54%
TuS BW Königsdorf 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Bonn-Endenich (draw refunded)
46%
TuS BW Königsdorf (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonn-Endenich at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

TuS BW Königsdorf away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.92 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonn-Endenich attack 1.40 + TuS BW Königsdorf defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.66

TuS BW Königsdorf attack 1.48 + Bonn-Endenich defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bonn-Endenich scores more
36%
level
22%
TuS BW Königsdorf scores more
42%

TuS BW Königsdorf at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TuS BW Königsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bonn-Endenich vs TuS BW Königsdorf

Bonn-Endenich and TuS BW Königsdorf drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Röckumstraße in Bonn.