Bonn-Endenich 4–0 Teutonia Weiden: Result & Stats

Bonn-Endenich

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Teutonia Weiden

4/27/2025

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 22Kunstrasenplatz Röckumstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Bonn-Endenich51%

×Draw19%

Teutonia Weiden30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonn-EndenichExpected goals in this matchTeutonia Weiden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.47

1.87

Bonn-Endenich

2.47

Teutonia Weiden

1.87

Bonn-Endenich creates 32% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 28 away

1.40

creates per match

1.57

2.17

allows per match

3.54

creates per match

Bonn-Endenich

1.40

Teutonia Weiden

1.57

allows per match

Bonn-Endenich

2.17

Teutonia Weiden

3.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonn-Endenich+0.00on par

Teutonia Weiden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonn-Endenich ↓

Teutonia Weiden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Bonn-Endenich or draw

70%

Bonn-Endenich or Teutonia Weiden

81%

Draw or Teutonia Weiden

49%

Winning margin

Bonn-Endenich wins by 2+

31%

Teutonia Weiden wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bonn-Endenich 1+ goals

91%

Bonn-Endenich 2+ goals

70%

Bonn-Endenich 3+ goals

44%

Teutonia Weiden 1+ goals

85%

Teutonia Weiden 2+ goals

56%

Teutonia Weiden 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Bonn-Endenich (draw refunded)

63%

Teutonia Weiden (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonn-Endenich at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

Teutonia Weiden away — creates 1.57, concedes 3.54 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonn-Endenich attack 1.40 + Teutonia Weiden defence 3.54 → ÷2 → 2.47

Teutonia Weiden attack 1.57 + Bonn-Endenich defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bonn-Endenich scores more

51%

level

19%

Teutonia Weiden scores more

30%

Bonn-Endenich at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bonn-Endenich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff