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Bonn-Endenich vs Siegburger SV — Oberliga - Mittelrhein 2020

Bonn-Endenich
Bonn-Endenich
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Siegburger SV
Siegburger SV
5/16/2025Oberliga - MittelrheinOberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 26Kunstrasenplatz Röckumstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bonn-Endenich28%
×Draw22%
Siegburger SV50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonn-Endenich
1.48
Siegburger SV
2.02

Siegburger SV creates 36% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 80 away

creates per match

Bonn-Endenich
1.40
Siegburger SV
1.86

allows per match

Bonn-Endenich
2.17
Siegburger SV
1.57

finishing

Bonn-Endenich+0.00on par
Siegburger SV+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonn-Endenich ↓

Siegburger SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Bonn-Endenich or draw
50%
Bonn-Endenich or Siegburger SV
78%
Draw or Siegburger SV
72%

Winning margin

Bonn-Endenich wins by 2+
13%
Siegburger SV wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Bonn-Endenich 1+ goals
77%
Bonn-Endenich 2+ goals
43%
Bonn-Endenich 3+ goals
19%
Siegburger SV 1+ goals
87%
Siegburger SV 2+ goals
60%
Siegburger SV 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Bonn-Endenich (draw refunded)
36%
Siegburger SV (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonn-Endenich at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

Siegburger SV away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.57 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonn-Endenich attack 1.40 + Siegburger SV defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Siegburger SV attack 1.86 + Bonn-Endenich defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bonn-Endenich scores more
28%
level
22%
Siegburger SV scores more
50%

Siegburger SV at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Siegburger SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bonn-Endenich vs Siegburger SV

Siegburger SV beat Bonn-Endenich 2-0 in Oberliga - Mittelrhein on May 16, 2025.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Röckumstraße in Bonn.