Bonn-Endenich 0–2 Freialdenhoven: Result & Stats

Bonn-Endenich

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Freialdenhoven

11/5/2023

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 13Kunstrasenplatz Röckumstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bonn-Endenich30%

×Draw22%

Freialdenhoven48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonn-EndenichExpected goals in this matchFreialdenhoven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.96

Bonn-Endenich

1.53

Freialdenhoven

1.96

Freialdenhoven creates 28% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 51 away

1.40

creates per match

1.75

2.17

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bonn-Endenich

1.40

Freialdenhoven

1.75

allows per match

Bonn-Endenich

2.17

Freialdenhoven

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonn-Endenich+0.00on par

Freialdenhoven+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonn-Endenich ↓

Freialdenhoven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bonn-Endenich or draw

52%

Bonn-Endenich or Freialdenhoven

78%

Draw or Freialdenhoven

70%

Winning margin

Bonn-Endenich wins by 2+

14%

Freialdenhoven wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Bonn-Endenich 1+ goals

78%

Bonn-Endenich 2+ goals

45%

Bonn-Endenich 3+ goals

20%

Freialdenhoven 1+ goals

86%

Freialdenhoven 2+ goals

58%

Freialdenhoven 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Bonn-Endenich (draw refunded)

39%

Freialdenhoven (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonn-Endenich at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

Freialdenhoven away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.67 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonn-Endenich attack 1.40 + Freialdenhoven defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

Freialdenhoven attack 1.75 + Bonn-Endenich defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bonn-Endenich scores more

30%

level

22%

Freialdenhoven scores more

48%

Freialdenhoven at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Freialdenhoven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff