Bonn-Endenich 1–2 Bonner SC: Result & Stats

Bonn-Endenich

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bonner SC

5/17/2024

Oberliga - Mittelrhein · Mittelrhein - 30Kunstrasenplatz Röckumstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bonn-Endenich21%

×Draw20%

Bonner SC59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bonn-EndenichExpected goals in this matchBonner SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

2.23

Bonn-Endenich

1.25

Bonner SC

2.23

Bonner SC creates 78% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 44 away

1.40

creates per match

2.30

2.17

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Bonn-Endenich

1.40

Bonner SC

2.30

allows per match

Bonn-Endenich

2.17

Bonner SC

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bonn-Endenich+0.00on par

Bonner SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonn-Endenich ↓

Bonner SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–28%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Bonn-Endenich or draw

41%

Bonn-Endenich or Bonner SC

80%

Draw or Bonner SC

79%

Winning margin

Bonn-Endenich wins by 2+

8%

Bonner SC wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Bonn-Endenich 1+ goals

71%

Bonn-Endenich 2+ goals

36%

Bonn-Endenich 3+ goals

13%

Bonner SC 1+ goals

89%

Bonner SC 2+ goals

65%

Bonner SC 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Bonn-Endenich (draw refunded)

26%

Bonner SC (draw refunded)

74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonn-Endenich at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.17 · 30 matches

Bonner SC away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.09 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonn-Endenich attack 1.40 + Bonner SC defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.25

Bonner SC attack 2.30 + Bonn-Endenich defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Bonn-Endenich scores more

21%

level

20%

Bonner SC scores more

59%

Bonner SC at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Bonner SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff