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Bóng đá Huế vs Tay Ninh — V.League 2 2020

Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
FT
0 – 0
Tay Ninh
Tay Ninh
6/18/2020V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 3Sân vận động Tự Do

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bóng đá Huế58%
×Draw27%
Tay Ninh15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bóng đá Huế
1.41
Tay Ninh
0.57

Bóng đá Huế creates 147% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bóng đá Huế
1.06
Tay Ninh
0.25

allows per match

Bóng đá Huế
0.90
Tay Ninh
1.75

finishing

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par
Tay Ninh+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bóng đá Huế ↓

Tay Ninh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bóng đá Huế or draw
85%
Bóng đá Huế or Tay Ninh
73%
Draw or Tay Ninh
42%

Winning margin

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
29%
Tay Ninh wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
76%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
41%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
17%
Tay Ninh 1+ goals
43%
Tay Ninh 2+ goals
11%
Tay Ninh 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
79%
Tay Ninh (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bóng đá Huế at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Tay Ninh away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bóng đá Huế attack 1.06 + Tay Ninh defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.41

Tay Ninh attack 0.25 + Bóng đá Huế defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Bóng đá Huế scores more
58%
level
27%
Tay Ninh scores more
15%

Bóng đá Huế at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Bóng đá Huế will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Bóng đá Huế 0–0 Tay Ninh

Bóng đá Huế and Tay Ninh drew 0-0 in V.League 2 on June 18, 2020.

The match was played at Sân vận động Tự Do in Hue.