Bóng đá Huế 0–5 Sai Gon: Result & Stats | Cup

Bóng đá Huế

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Sai Gon

4/6/2022

Cup · 1st RoundSân vận động Tự Do

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bóng đá Huế9%

×Draw14%

Sai Gon76%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bóng đá HuếExpected goals in this matchSai Gon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

2.71

Bóng đá Huế

0.83

Sai Gon

2.71

Sai Gon creates 227% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

0.00

creates per match

2.67

2.75

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Bóng đá Huế

0.00

Sai Gon

2.67

allows per match

Bóng đá Huế

2.75

Sai Gon

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Sai Gon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bóng đá Huế ↓

Sai Gon →

0–03%

0–18%

0–211%

0–310%

0–47%

1–02%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2–01%

2–13%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Bóng đá Huế or draw

24%

Bóng đá Huế or Sai Gon

86%

Draw or Sai Gon

91%

Winning margin

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+

Sai Gon wins by 2+

55%

Team goals

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals

56%

Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals

20%

Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals

Sai Gon 1+ goals

93%

Sai Gon 2+ goals

75%

Sai Gon 3+ goals

50%

Draw no bet

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)

11%

Sai Gon (draw refunded)

89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Bóng đá Huế at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Sai Gon away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.00 + Sai Gon defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Sai Gon attack 2.67 + Bóng đá Huế defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 76%?"

Bóng đá Huế scores more

level

14%

Sai Gon scores more

76%

Sai Gon at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Sai Gon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff