Bóng đá Huế 2–0 Pho Hien: Result & Stats

Bóng đá Huế

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Pho Hien

6/9/2023

V.League 2 · Round 8Sân vận động Tự Do

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bóng đá Huế29%

×Draw32%

Pho Hien39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bóng đá HuếExpected goals in this matchPho Hien

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.84

1.02

Bóng đá Huế

0.84

Pho Hien

1.02

Pho Hien creates 21% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

1.06

creates per match

1.15

0.90

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Bóng đá Huế

1.06

Pho Hien

1.15

allows per match

Bóng đá Huế

0.90

Pho Hien

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bóng đá Huế ↓

Pho Hien →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Bóng đá Huế or draw

61%

Bóng đá Huế or Pho Hien

68%

Draw or Pho Hien

71%

Winning margin

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+

10%

Pho Hien wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals

57%

Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals

21%

Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals

5%

Pho Hien 1+ goals

64%

Pho Hien 2+ goals

27%

Pho Hien 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)

43%

Pho Hien (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bóng đá Huế at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bóng đá Huế attack 1.06 + Pho Hien defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.84

Pho Hien attack 1.15 + Bóng đá Huế defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bóng đá Huế scores more

29%

level

32%

Pho Hien scores more

39%

Pho Hien at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pho Hien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff