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Bóng đá Huế vs Ha Noi T&T — Cup 2019

Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
FT
0 – 1
Ha Noi T&T
Ha Noi T&T
3/31/2019CupCup · 1st RoundSân vận động Tự Do (Tu Do Stadium) (Huế (Hue))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Bóng đá Huế9%
×Draw20%
Ha Noi T&T71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bóng đá Huế
0.50
Ha Noi T&T
1.88

Ha Noi T&T creates 276% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Bóng đá Huế
0.00
Ha Noi T&T
1.00

allows per match

Bóng đá Huế
2.75
Ha Noi T&T
1.00

finishing

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par
Ha Noi T&T+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bóng đá Huế ↓

Ha Noi T&T →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–117%
0–216%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bóng đá Huế or draw
29%
Bóng đá Huế or Ha Noi T&T
80%
Draw or Ha Noi T&T
91%

Winning margin

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
2%
Ha Noi T&T wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
39%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
9%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
1%
Ha Noi T&T 1+ goals
85%
Ha Noi T&T 2+ goals
56%
Ha Noi T&T 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
11%
Ha Noi T&T (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bóng đá Huế at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Ha Noi T&T away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bóng đá Huế attack 0.00 + Ha Noi T&T defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Ha Noi T&T attack 1.00 + Bóng đá Huế defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Bóng đá Huế scores more
9%
level
20%
Ha Noi T&T scores more
71%

Ha Noi T&T at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Ha Noi T&T will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bóng đá Huế vs Ha Noi T&T

Ha Noi T&T beat Bóng đá Huế 1-0 in Cup on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Sân vận động Tự Do (Tu Do Stadium) (Huế (Hue)).