Bóng đá Huế 1–1 Dak Lak: Result & Stats

Bóng đá Huế

FT

1 – 1

Dak Lak

10/21/2020

V.League 2 · Relegation Round - 3Sân vận động Tự Do

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bóng đá Huế42%

×Draw29%

Dak Lak28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bóng đá HuếExpected goals in this matchDak Lak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.93

Bóng đá Huế

1.20

Dak Lak

0.93

Bóng đá Huế creates 29% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 21 away

1.06

creates per match

0.95

0.90

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Bóng đá Huế

1.06

Dak Lak

0.95

allows per match

Bóng đá Huế

0.90

Dak Lak

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Dak Lak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bóng đá Huế ↓

Dak Lak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bóng đá Huế or draw

72%

Bóng đá Huế or Dak Lak

71%

Draw or Dak Lak

58%

Winning margin

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+

18%

Dak Lak wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals

70%

Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals

34%

Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals

12%

Dak Lak 1+ goals

61%

Dak Lak 2+ goals

24%

Dak Lak 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)

60%

Dak Lak (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bóng đá Huế at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Dak Lak away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bóng đá Huế attack 1.06 + Dak Lak defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Dak Lak attack 0.95 + Bóng đá Huế defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bóng đá Huế scores more

42%

level

29%

Dak Lak scores more

28%

Bóng đá Huế at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bóng đá Huế will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff