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Bombada vs Real de Banjul — GFA League 2020

Bombada
Bombada
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Real de Banjul
Real de Banjul
2/2/2024GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bombada36%
×Draw31%
Real de Banjul34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bombada
1.02
Real de Banjul
0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 88 away

creates per match

Bombada
1.36
Real de Banjul
1.15

allows per match

Bombada
0.82
Real de Banjul
0.68

finishing

Bombada+0.00on par
Real de Banjul+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bombada ↓

Real de Banjul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Bombada or draw
66%
Bombada or Real de Banjul
69%
Draw or Real de Banjul
64%

Winning margin

Bombada wins by 2+
14%
Real de Banjul wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bombada 1+ goals
64%
Bombada 2+ goals
27%
Bombada 3+ goals
8%
Real de Banjul 1+ goals
62%
Real de Banjul 2+ goals
26%
Real de Banjul 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bombada (draw refunded)
52%
Real de Banjul (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bombada at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

Real de Banjul away — creates 1.15, concedes 0.68 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bombada attack 1.36 + Real de Banjul defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.02

Real de Banjul attack 1.15 + Bombada defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Bombada scores more
36%
level
31%
Real de Banjul scores more
34%

Bombada at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Bombada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bombada vs Real de Banjul

Bombada and Real de Banjul drew 1-1 in GFA League on February 2, 2024.