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Boluspor vs Yeni Orduspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Boluspor
Boluspor
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Yeni Orduspor
Yeni Orduspor
12/1/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundBolu Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Boluspor55%
×Draw22%
Yeni Orduspor23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boluspor
2.01
Yeni Orduspor
1.23

Boluspor creates 63% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Boluspor
2.13
Yeni Orduspor
1.40

allows per match

Boluspor
1.06
Yeni Orduspor
1.90

finishing

Boluspor+0.00on par
Yeni Orduspor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boluspor ↓

Yeni Orduspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Boluspor or draw
77%
Boluspor or Yeni Orduspor
78%
Draw or Yeni Orduspor
45%

Winning margin

Boluspor wins by 2+
33%
Yeni Orduspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Boluspor 1+ goals
87%
Boluspor 2+ goals
59%
Boluspor 3+ goals
32%
Yeni Orduspor 1+ goals
71%
Yeni Orduspor 2+ goals
35%
Yeni Orduspor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Boluspor (draw refunded)
70%
Yeni Orduspor (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boluspor at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Yeni Orduspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boluspor attack 2.13 + Yeni Orduspor defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.01

Yeni Orduspor attack 1.40 + Boluspor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Boluspor scores more
55%
level
22%
Yeni Orduspor scores more
23%

Boluspor at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Boluspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boluspor vs Yeni Orduspor

Boluspor beat Yeni Orduspor 4-2 in Türkiye Kupası on December 1, 2021.

The match was played at Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu in Bolu.