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Boluspor vs Tarsus İdman Yurdu — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Boluspor
Boluspor
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tarsus İdman Yurdu
Tarsus İdman Yurdu
11/9/2022Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th RoundBolu Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Boluspor61%
×Draw21%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boluspor
2.06
Tarsus İdman Yurdu
1.03

Boluspor creates 100% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Boluspor
2.13
Tarsus İdman Yurdu
1.00

allows per match

Boluspor
1.06
Tarsus İdman Yurdu
2.00

finishing

Boluspor+0.00on par
Tarsus İdman Yurdu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boluspor ↓

Tarsus İdman Yurdu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Boluspor or draw
82%
Boluspor or Tarsus İdman Yurdu
79%
Draw or Tarsus İdman Yurdu
39%

Winning margin

Boluspor wins by 2+
37%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Boluspor 1+ goals
87%
Boluspor 2+ goals
61%
Boluspor 3+ goals
34%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu 1+ goals
64%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu 2+ goals
28%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Boluspor (draw refunded)
77%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boluspor at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Tarsus İdman Yurdu away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boluspor attack 2.13 + Tarsus İdman Yurdu defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Tarsus İdman Yurdu attack 1.00 + Boluspor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Boluspor scores more
61%
level
21%
Tarsus İdman Yurdu scores more
18%

Boluspor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Boluspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Boluspor 2–1 Tarsus İdman Yurdu

Boluspor beat Tarsus İdman Yurdu 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 9, 2022.

The match was played at Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu in Bolu.