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Boluspor vs Payasspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Boluspor
Boluspor
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Payasspor
Payasspor
9/26/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundBolu Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Boluspor69%
×Draw16%
Payasspor15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boluspor
2.73
Payasspor
1.20

Boluspor creates 127% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

Boluspor
2.13
Payasspor
1.33

allows per match

Boluspor
1.06
Payasspor
3.33

finishing

Boluspor+0.00on par
Payasspor+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boluspor ↓

Payasspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Boluspor or draw
85%
Boluspor or Payasspor
84%
Draw or Payasspor
31%

Winning margin

Boluspor wins by 2+
48%
Payasspor wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Boluspor 1+ goals
93%
Boluspor 2+ goals
75%
Boluspor 3+ goals
50%
Payasspor 1+ goals
70%
Payasspor 2+ goals
34%
Payasspor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Boluspor (draw refunded)
82%
Payasspor (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boluspor at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Payasspor away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boluspor attack 2.13 + Payasspor defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.73

Payasspor attack 1.33 + Boluspor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Boluspor scores more
69%
level
16%
Payasspor scores more
15%

Boluspor at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Boluspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Boluspor 4–1 Payasspor

Boluspor beat Payasspor 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on September 26, 2018.

The match was played at Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu in Bolu.