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Boluspor vs Kahta 02 Spor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Boluspor
Bolusporadvanced
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kahta 02 Spor
Kahta 02 Spor
12/4/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Final

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Boluspor57%
×Draw21%
Kahta 02 Spor22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boluspor
2.15
Kahta 02 Spor
1.28

Boluspor creates 68% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Boluspor
2.13
Kahta 02 Spor
1.50

allows per match

Boluspor
1.06
Kahta 02 Spor
2.17

finishing

Boluspor+0.00on par
Kahta 02 Spor+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boluspor ↓

Kahta 02 Spor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Boluspor or draw
78%
Boluspor or Kahta 02 Spor
79%
Draw or Kahta 02 Spor
43%

Winning margin

Boluspor wins by 2+
35%
Kahta 02 Spor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Boluspor 1+ goals
88%
Boluspor 2+ goals
63%
Boluspor 3+ goals
36%
Kahta 02 Spor 1+ goals
72%
Kahta 02 Spor 2+ goals
37%
Kahta 02 Spor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Boluspor (draw refunded)
72%
Kahta 02 Spor (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boluspor at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

Kahta 02 Spor away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boluspor attack 2.13 + Kahta 02 Spor defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.15

Kahta 02 Spor attack 1.50 + Boluspor defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Boluspor scores more
57%
level
21%
Kahta 02 Spor scores more
22%

Boluspor at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Boluspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boluspor vs Kahta 02 Spor

Boluspor beat Kahta 02 Spor 2-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 4, 2025.