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Boluspor vs Esenler Erokspor — 1. Lig 2018

Boluspor
Boluspor
Preview
17:00
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
11/29/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 16
41%
Esenler Erokspor
model favours
33%26%41%

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Boluspor33%
×Draw26%
Esenler Erokspor41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boluspor
1.23
Esenler Erokspor
1.42

Esenler Erokspor creates 15% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 38 away

creates per match

Boluspor
1.28
Esenler Erokspor
1.71

allows per match

Boluspor
1.12
Esenler Erokspor
1.18

finishing

Boluspor+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boluspor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Boluspor or draw
59%
Boluspor or Esenler Erokspor
74%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
67%

Winning margin

Boluspor wins by 2+
14%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Boluspor 1+ goals
71%
Boluspor 2+ goals
35%
Boluspor 3+ goals
13%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
76%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
41%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Boluspor (draw refunded)
44%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boluspor at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.12 · 147 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boluspor attack 1.28 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Boluspor defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Boluspor scores more
33%
level
26%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
41%

Esenler Erokspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Boluspor sit 15, Esenler Erokspor 3 in the table
  • Boluspor outscore their xG (1.7 vs 1.0 expected)
  • Esenler Erokspor fall short of their xG (1.6 vs 2.0 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Boluspor
Balanced
Esenler Erokspor
Possession-dominant
53%Possession56%
79%Pass accuracy81%
12.5Shots13.6
1.02xGBiggest gap2.04
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BolusporEsenler Erokspor

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Boluspor
1
Draws
2
Esenler Erokspor
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 75%
0–21–31–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Boluspor
WLWLL
Erokspor
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Boluspor face Esenler Erokspor (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Boluspor hosting Esenler Erokspor. Match starts November 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.