Boluspor 2–1 Esenler Erokspor: Result & Stats

Boluspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Esenler Erokspor

D. Avramovski 81', 45'

M. Faye 72'

8/24/2024

1. Lig · Round 3Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Boluspor33%

×Draw26%

Esenler Erokspor41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolusporExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.42

Boluspor

1.23

Esenler Erokspor

1.42

Esenler Erokspor creates 15% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 38 away

1.28

creates per match

1.71

1.12

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Boluspor

1.28

Esenler Erokspor

1.71

allows per match

Boluspor

1.12

Esenler Erokspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boluspor+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boluspor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Boluspor or draw

59%

Boluspor or Esenler Erokspor

74%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

67%

Winning margin

Boluspor wins by 2+

14%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Boluspor 1+ goals

71%

Boluspor 2+ goals

35%

Boluspor 3+ goals

13%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

76%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

41%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Boluspor (draw refunded)

44%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boluspor at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.12 · 147 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boluspor attack 1.28 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.23

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Boluspor defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Boluspor scores more

33%

level

26%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

41%

Esenler Erokspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

D. Avramovski

Boluspor · F

8.6

Match Events

13'

Oğuz Ceylan

45'

D. Avramovski

61'

J. Fernándes← İ. Furat

61'

A. Karaman← S. Narin

69'

H. Yener← K. Babacar

72'

M. Faye

75'

B. Asan← Estrela

75'

V. İsgəndərli← B. Yıldız

79'

T. Özcan← B. Aydoğmuş

79'

F. Orak← H. Čataković

81'

D. Avramovski↳ O. Güçtekin

86'

H. Bilgiç← A. Ülgen

86'

İ. Karaoğul← D. Avramovski

87'

Burak Asan

87'

A. Toplu← J. Laine

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BolusporEsenler

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots10

6Corners2

9Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots10

5On Target3

7Off Target5

2Blocked2

9Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

400Total Passes482

337Accurate Passes399

84%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1