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Boluspor vs Bodrum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Boluspor
Boluspor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
11/2/20251. Lig1. Lig · Round 12Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Boluspor36%
×Draw28%
Bodrum FK37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boluspor
1.18
Bodrum FK
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 57 away

creates per match

Boluspor
1.28
Bodrum FK
1.28

allows per match

Boluspor
1.12
Bodrum FK
1.07

finishing

Boluspor+0.00on par
Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boluspor ↓

Bodrum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Boluspor or draw
63%
Boluspor or Bodrum FK
72%
Draw or Bodrum FK
64%

Winning margin

Boluspor wins by 2+
15%
Bodrum FK wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Boluspor 1+ goals
69%
Boluspor 2+ goals
33%
Boluspor 3+ goals
12%
Bodrum FK 1+ goals
70%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
34%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Boluspor (draw refunded)
49%
Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boluspor at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.12 · 147 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boluspor attack 1.28 + Bodrum FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.18

Bodrum FK attack 1.28 + Boluspor defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Boluspor scores more
36%
level
28%
Bodrum FK scores more
37%

Bodrum FK at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Boluspor 3–0 Bodrum FK

Boluspor beat Bodrum FK 3-0 in 1. Lig on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu in Bolu.