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Bolton vs Walsall — League Two 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Walsall
Walsall
E. Doyle 80' (pen)
K. Lee 67'
S. Perry 28'
3/20/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 37University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bolton40%
×Draw28%
Walsall31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.24
Walsall
1.06

Bolton creates 17% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 156 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.17
Walsall
1.13

allows per match

Bolton
1.00
Walsall
1.31

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Walsall+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Walsall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
69%
Bolton or Walsall
72%
Draw or Walsall
60%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
18%
Walsall wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
71%
Bolton 2+ goals
35%
Bolton 3+ goals
13%
Walsall 1+ goals
65%
Walsall 2+ goals
29%
Walsall 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
56%
Walsall (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Walsall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.31 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.17 + Walsall defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Walsall attack 1.13 + Bolton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bolton scores more
40%
level
28%
Walsall scores more
31%

Bolton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
K. LeeBoltonBolton · M
7.7

Match Events

28'
S. Perry
45'
James Clarke
67'
K. Lee
73'
Hayden White
77'
C. Cockerill-Mollett← J. Gordon
80'
E. DoylePenalty
84'
A. Gnahoua← O. Afolayan
85'
Z. Elbouzedi← L. Isgrove
86'
Declan John
88'
D. Osei Yaw← C. Lavery
88'
W. McDonald← E. Osadebe
88'
A. Bates← M. Sadler
90'
Cameron Norman
90+1'
S. Miller← E. Doyle
90+3'
G. Thomason← N. Delfouneso

Possession

68%Bolton

Shots

13Bolton

Pass accuracy

59%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonWalsall
Overview
68%Possession32%
13Total Shots7
7Corners3
17Fouls14
Shots
13Total Shots7
3On Target2
4Off Target4
6Blocked1
7Inside Box3
6Outside Box4
Passing
68%Possession32%
536Total Passes234
442Accurate Passes130
82%Pass Accuracy56%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Bolton vs Walsall

Bolton beat Walsall 2-1 in League Two on March 20, 2021.

Goals: S. Perry (28'), K. Lee (67'), E. Doyle (80' pen).

Bolton controlled possession (68%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.