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Bolton vs Tranmere — League Two 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Tranmere
Tranmere
J. Vaughan 75' (pen)
K. Morris 68'
P. Clarke 28'
12/19/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 19University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bolton44%
×Draw28%
Tranmere28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.32
Tranmere
0.98

Bolton creates 35% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 144 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.17
Tranmere
0.97

allows per match

Bolton
1.00
Tranmere
1.47

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Tranmere+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Tranmere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
72%
Bolton or Tranmere
72%
Draw or Tranmere
56%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
21%
Tranmere wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
73%
Bolton 2+ goals
38%
Bolton 3+ goals
15%
Tranmere 1+ goals
62%
Tranmere 2+ goals
26%
Tranmere 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
62%
Tranmere (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Tranmere away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.47 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.17 + Tranmere defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tranmere attack 0.97 + Bolton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bolton scores more
44%
level
28%
Tranmere scores more
28%

Bolton at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
P. ClarkeTranmereTranmere · D
7.9

Match Events

28'
P. Clarke↳ L. Feeney
57'
O. Banks← J. Spearing
63'
A. Crawford← H. Brockbank
67'
M. Ferrier← C. Taylor
68'
K. Morris
75'
J. VaughanPenalty
89'
D. Lloyd← J. Vaughan
89'
L. O'Connor← K. Morris
89'
K. Woolery← L. Feeney

Possession

53%Bolton

Shots

16Bolton

Pass accuracy

51%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonTranmere
Overview
53%Possession47%
16Total Shots12
7Corners4
13Fouls13
Shots
16Total Shots12
3On Target5
7Off Target6
6Blocked1
10Inside Box7
6Outside Box5
Passing
53%Possession47%
463Total Passes416
367Accurate Passes319
79%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls13
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Bolton vs Tranmere

Tranmere beat Bolton 3-0 in League Two on December 19, 2020.

Goals: P. Clarke (28'), K. Morris (68'), J. Vaughan (75' pen).

Bolton controlled possession (53%) and registered 16 shots to 12.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.