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Bolton vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Bolton
Bolton
Preview
14:00
Stoke City
Stoke City
10/10/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 9Toughsheet Community Stadium
Big match
38%
Bolton
model favours
38%27%35%

80% of Bolton’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton38%
×Draw27%
Stoke City35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.25
Stoke City
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 178 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.16
Stoke City
0.99

allows per match

Bolton
1.39
Stoke City
1.34

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Stoke City+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
65%
Bolton or Stoke City
73%
Draw or Stoke City
62%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
16%
Stoke City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
71%
Bolton 2+ goals
36%
Bolton 3+ goals
13%
Stoke City 1+ goals
70%
Stoke City 2+ goals
33%
Stoke City 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
52%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Stoke City away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.34 · 178 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Stoke City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stoke City attack 0.99 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bolton scores more
38%
level
27%
Stoke City scores more
35%

Bolton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bolton have scored in 9 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Bolton’s matches
  • 40% of Bolton’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bolton
Direct / counter-attacking
Stoke City
Balanced
41%PossessionBiggest gap50%
66%Pass accuracy75%
9.8Shots11.4
—xG1.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BoltonStoke City

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Bolton
1
Draws
3
Stoke City
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 17%
0–10–00–25–00–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bolton
WLWWW
City
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bolton vs Stoke City — Match Preview

Bolton face Stoke City on October 10, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bolton host Stoke City at Toughsheet Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.