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Bolton vs Rotherham — Championship 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rotherham
Rotherham
G. O'Neil 65'
S. Ameobi 33'
W. Vaulks 37'
12/26/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 24University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton47%
×Draw26%
Rotherham27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.45
Rotherham
1.03

Bolton creates 41% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 90 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.16
Rotherham
0.67

allows per match

Bolton
1.39
Rotherham
1.74

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Rotherham+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Rotherham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
73%
Bolton or Rotherham
74%
Draw or Rotherham
53%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
23%
Rotherham wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
77%
Bolton 2+ goals
42%
Bolton 3+ goals
18%
Rotherham 1+ goals
64%
Rotherham 2+ goals
28%
Rotherham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
64%
Rotherham (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Rotherham away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.74 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Rotherham defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rotherham attack 0.67 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bolton scores more
47%
level
26%
Rotherham scores more
27%

Bolton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
G. O'NeilBoltonBolton · M
8.3

Match Events

13'
Clark Robertson
33'
S. Ameobi↳ G. O'Neil
37'
W. Vaulks↳ J. Newell
51'
Marc Wilson
65'
G. O'Neil
66'
R. Williams← A. Forde
67'
P. Olkowski← A. Taylor
74'
J. Taylor← J. Newell
78'
J. Magennis← C. Donaldson
83'
B. Wiles← J. Proctor
90'
Joe Williams
90+5'
W. Buckley← S. Ameobi

Possession

47%Bolton

Shots

12Bolton

Pass accuracy

50%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonRotherham
Overview
47%Possession53%
12Total Shots13
2Corners4
8Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots13
4On Target2
7Off Target8
1Blocked3
9Inside Box9
3Outside Box4
Passing
47%Possession53%
306Total Passes344
164Accurate Passes189
54%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
8Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Championship: Bolton 2–1 Rotherham

Bolton beat Rotherham 2-1 in Championship on December 26, 2018.

Goals: S. Ameobi (33'), W. Vaulks (37'), G. O'Neil (65').

Rotherham controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Horwich.