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Bolton vs Preston — Championship 2025

Bolton
Bolton
Preview
11:30
Preston
Preston
8/15/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1Toughsheet Community Stadium
Big match
39%
Bolton
model favours
39%25%36%

Preston score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Bolton39%
×Draw25%
Preston36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.45
Preston
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 57 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.31
Preston
1.00

allows per match

Bolton
1.77
Preston
1.58

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Preston+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
64%
Bolton or Preston
75%
Draw or Preston
61%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
18%
Preston wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
77%
Bolton 2+ goals
42%
Bolton 3+ goals
18%
Preston 1+ goals
75%
Preston 2+ goals
40%
Preston 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
52%
Preston (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

Preston away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.31 + Preston defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Preston attack 1.00 + Bolton defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Bolton scores more
39%
level
25%
Preston scores more
36%

Bolton at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 76% of Preston’s matches
  • Preston win just 21% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bolton
Balanced
Preston
Direct / counter-attacking
46%Possession45%
67%Pass accuracyBiggest gap71%
10.9Shots10.4
—xG1.06
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BoltonPreston

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Bolton
1
Draws
2
Preston
Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 60%
2–01–01–22–21–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bolton
WWWWL
Preston
WLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bolton vs Preston — Match Preview

Bolton face Preston on August 15, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bolton host Preston at Toughsheet Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.