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Bolton vs Oxford United — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Oxford United
Oxford United
3/12/2024League OneLeague One · Round 38Toughsheet Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Bolton45%
×Draw25%
Oxford United30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.56
Oxford United
1.23

Bolton creates 27% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 137 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.73
Oxford United
1.36

allows per match

Bolton
1.09
Oxford United
1.39

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Oxford United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Oxford United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
70%
Bolton or Oxford United
75%
Draw or Oxford United
55%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
23%
Oxford United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
79%
Bolton 2+ goals
46%
Bolton 3+ goals
21%
Oxford United 1+ goals
71%
Oxford United 2+ goals
35%
Oxford United 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
60%
Oxford United (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 139 matches

Oxford United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.39 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.73 + Oxford United defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.56

Oxford United attack 1.36 + Bolton defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bolton scores more
45%
level
25%
Oxford United scores more
30%

Bolton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bolton 5–0 Oxford United

Bolton beat Oxford United 5-0 in League One on March 12, 2024.

The match was played at Toughsheet Community Stadium in Bolton.