Bolton 3–2 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Bolton

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Nottingham Forest

A. Wilbraham 88'

D. Wheater 87'

A. Le Fondre 67'

J. Colback 79'

B. Osborn 70'

5/6/2018

Championship · Round 46University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton32%

×Draw28%

Nottingham Forest40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.27

Bolton

1.09

Nottingham Forest

1.27

Nottingham Forest creates 17% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 95 away

1.16

creates per match

1.16

1.39

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Bolton

1.16

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Bolton

1.39

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

60%

Bolton or Nottingham Forest

72%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

68%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

12%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

66%

Bolton 2+ goals

30%

Bolton 3+ goals

10%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

72%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

36%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

44%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.09

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bolton scores more

32%

level

28%

Nottingham Forest scores more

40%

Nottingham Forest at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Nottingham Forest will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Le Fondre

Bolton · F

8.6

Match Events

7'

13'

39'

45'

46'

M. Howard← B. Alnwick

57'

Joe Lolley

59'

A. Le Fondre← D. Pratley

61'

M. Cash← L. Tomlin

67'

A. Le Fondre

70'

B. Osborn↳ J. Lolley

76'

A. Guédioura← B. Watson

76'

A. Vellios← L. Bridcutt

77'

C. Noone← Filipe Morais

79'

J. Colback

83'

Tendayi Darikwa

87'

D. Wheater↳ A. Le Fondre

88'

A. Wilbraham↳ A. Le Fondre

89'

Aaron Wilbraham

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonNottingham

Overview

43%Possession57%

24Total Shots12

6Corners2

12Fouls11

Shots

24Total Shots12

9On Target4

13Off Target5

2Blocked3

18Inside Box8

6Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

336Total Passes465

221Accurate Passes350

66%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

12Fouls11

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2