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Bolton vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
A. Fletcher 28', 16'
4/9/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton34%
×Draw26%
Middlesbrough40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.25
Middlesbrough
1.38

Middlesbrough creates 10% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 185 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.16
Middlesbrough
1.37

allows per match

Bolton
1.39
Middlesbrough
1.34

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Middlesbrough+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
60%
Bolton or Middlesbrough
74%
Draw or Middlesbrough
66%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
15%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
71%
Bolton 2+ goals
36%
Bolton 3+ goals
13%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
75%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
40%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
46%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.34 · 185 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Middlesbrough defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Middlesbrough attack 1.37 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bolton scores more
34%
level
26%
Middlesbrough scores more
40%

Middlesbrough at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
A. FletcherMiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough · F
8.4

Match Events

16'
A. Fletcher
28'
A. Fletcher↳ M. Bešić
72'
E. Öztümer← J. Williams
82'
C. Connolly← L. Connell
86'
A. Clayton← M. Bešić
90+1'
M. Tavernier← B. Assombalonga

Possession

56%Bolton

Shots

13Bolton

Pass accuracy

51%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonMiddlesbrough
Overview
56%Possession44%
13Total Shots18
8Corners9
11Fouls6
Shots
13Total Shots18
2On Target5
7Off Target5
4Blocked8
9Inside Box11
4Outside Box7
Passing
56%Possession44%
458Total Passes357
353Accurate Passes260
77%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls6
1Offsides6

Match Recap: Bolton vs Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough beat Bolton 2-0 in Championship on April 9, 2019.

Goals: A. Fletcher (16', 28').

Bolton controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 18.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Horwich.