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Bolton vs Gillingham — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
CANC
19:00
Gillingham
Gillingham
4/14/2020League OneLeague One · Round 43University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Bolton47%
×Draw25%
Gillingham27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.55
Gillingham
1.11

Bolton creates 40% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 99 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.72
Gillingham
1.17

allows per match

Bolton
1.05
Gillingham
1.38

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Gillingham+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
73%
Bolton or Gillingham
75%
Draw or Gillingham
53%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
24%
Gillingham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
79%
Bolton 2+ goals
46%
Bolton 3+ goals
20%
Gillingham 1+ goals
67%
Gillingham 2+ goals
30%
Gillingham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
64%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.05 · 136 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.72 + Gillingham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.55

Gillingham attack 1.17 + Bolton defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bolton scores more
47%
level
25%
Gillingham scores more
27%

Bolton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bolton vs Gillingham — Match Preview

Bolton face Gillingham on April 14, 2020 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bolton host Gillingham at University of Bolton Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.