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Bolton vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Forest Green
Forest Green
C. Winchester 50'
9/12/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 1University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bolton37%
×Draw28%
Forest Green35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.21
Forest Green
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 90 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.17
Forest Green
1.36

allows per match

Bolton
1.00
Forest Green
1.26

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
65%
Bolton or Forest Green
72%
Draw or Forest Green
63%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
16%
Forest Green wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
70%
Bolton 2+ goals
34%
Bolton 3+ goals
12%
Forest Green 1+ goals
69%
Forest Green 2+ goals
33%
Forest Green 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
51%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.17 + Forest Green defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Forest Green attack 1.36 + Bolton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bolton scores more
37%
level
28%
Forest Green scores more
35%

Bolton at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
RicardoBoltonBolton · D
7.7

Match Events

35'
Liam Kitching
40'
Brandon Comley
49'
Reiss Greenidge
50'
C. Winchester
54'
Alex Baptiste
56'
A. Crawford← B. Comley
71'
B. Amoateng← R. Greenidge
71'
A. Tutte← T. White
82'
S. Wagstaff← A. Collins
86'
S. McCoulsky← J. Matt

Possession

55%Bolton

Shots

9Bolton

Pass accuracy

53%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonForest
Overview
55%Possession45%
9Total Shots15
5Corners1
14Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots15
2On Target3
4Off Target8
3Blocked4
7Inside Box8
2Outside Box7
Passing
55%Possession45%
406Total Passes315
305Accurate Passes208
75%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls14
3Yellow Cards1
7Offsides0

Match Recap: Bolton vs Forest Green

Forest Green beat Bolton 1-0 in League Two on September 12, 2020.

Goals: C. Winchester (50').

Bolton controlled possession (55%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.