Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bolton vs Fleetwood Town — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
4/29/2023League OneLeague One · Round 45University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Bolton47%
×Draw25%
Fleetwood Town27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.58
Fleetwood Town
1.14

Bolton creates 39% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 134 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.73
Fleetwood Town
1.18

allows per match

Bolton
1.09
Fleetwood Town
1.43

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
73%
Bolton or Fleetwood Town
75%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
53%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
24%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
79%
Bolton 2+ goals
47%
Bolton 3+ goals
21%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
68%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
32%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
63%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.09 · 139 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.73 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.58

Fleetwood Town attack 1.18 + Bolton defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bolton scores more
47%
level
25%
Fleetwood Town scores more
27%

Bolton at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bolton 2–0 Fleetwood Town

Bolton beat Fleetwood Town 2-0 in League One on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.