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Bolton vs Doncaster — League One 2024

Bolton
Bolton
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
G. Thomason 57'
E. Kachunga 45+4'
E. Doyle 37'
11/23/2021League OneLeague One · Round 19University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bolton57%
×Draw23%
Doncaster20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.79
Doncaster
0.94

Bolton creates 90% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.78
Doncaster
0.83

allows per match

Bolton
1.05
Doncaster
1.81

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
80%
Bolton or Doncaster
77%
Draw or Doncaster
43%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
33%
Doncaster wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
83%
Bolton 2+ goals
53%
Bolton 3+ goals
26%
Doncaster 1+ goals
61%
Doncaster 2+ goals
24%
Doncaster 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
75%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Doncaster away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.78 + Doncaster defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.79

Doncaster attack 0.83 + Bolton defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bolton scores more
57%
level
23%
Doncaster scores more
20%

Bolton at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
D. JohnBoltonBolton · D
8.2

Match Events

31'
G. Johnston← L. Isgrove
37'
E. Doyle↳ E. Kachunga
39'
Oladapo Afolayan
43'
Joseph Olowu
45+4'
E. Kachunga↳ O. Afolayan
57'
G. Thomason↳ D. John
59'
X. Amaechi← E. Doyle
67'
T. Çukur← J. Taylor
71'
N. Delfouneso← K. Lee

Possession

72%Bolton

Shots

20Bolton

Pass accuracy

54%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonDoncaster
Overview
72%Possession28%
20Total Shots6
14Corners4
6Fouls9
Shots
20Total Shots6
5On Target1
8Off Target3
7Blocked2
12Inside Box2
8Outside Box4
Passing
72%Possession28%
539Total Passes201
467Accurate Passes148
87%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
6Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
2Offsides0

League One: Bolton 3–0 Doncaster

Bolton beat Doncaster 3-0 in League One on November 23, 2021.

Goals: E. Doyle (37'), E. Kachunga (45+4'), G. Thomason (57').

Bolton controlled possession (72%) and registered 20 shots to 6.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.